Your 2025 Hurricane Season Forecast Presented by Becca's Jams and Jellies
- Remington Diedrich
- Jun 13
- 13 min read
The time has arrived! Hurricane season is here, and Temple's official hurricane season forecast is here! We have had a series of active seasons, with our last "below average" season being all the way back in 2015. Average is defined by 14 named storms within the Atlantic Basin. The Atlantic Basin includes the Gulf, Bay of Campeche, the North Atlantic Ocean, and the Caribbean Sea. We are going to take a month-by-month breakdown of how this hurricane season may affect us and those around us. Then, we will announce the 2025 TempleWXBlog hurricane season forecast. Get your favorite coffee and enjoy the blog!
Click on a Month to skip to it!
First however, let's have a quick word from our sponsor!
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Becca's Jams & Jellies was founded in 2017.
After constantly being told by family and friends, I need to go public. So here I am 8 years later, still going strong.
The love of making my kind of jam and jellies never ceases to fascinate me.
I have been making jams, jellies, and anything else I can preserve in a jar for over 50 yrs.
I'm also an avid grower/gardener. My love and study of herbs is lifelong. It wasn't until I had a horrid reaction to food when I was out of the country decades ago that I had to learn to solely rely on my knowledge of herbs if I wanted to eat delicious food. Having 7 kids and not wanting to eat the same old things.. even being a great cook, there is only so much you can do... this is when I started to combine and experiment with my herbs. Herbs can be combined in infinite combinations to create a multitude of flavors. It's really just a matter of having a sensitive palate and being able to know how to combine them to get what you want. Thus, the jams and jellies slowly came into play. Wanting organic and delicious with nothing artificial for my family and something I can cook with.. the more I experimented, the more came to life. Thus, my jam business was born. Through the years, I have learned to cook so much, and there is nothing I can't do with the jams and jellies. Not just for breakfast anymore! With a total of 63 low sugar jams and jellies, there is something for everyone. However, it doesn't stop there. I love being involved with kids and supporting their desires to learn and grow and pursue their own business.
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June...
The start of Hurricane Season was June 1st, and you probably wouldn't know. There has only been one brief AOI (Area of Interest) in the Atlantic Basin off the Georgia Coast. This ultimately never developed into anything past a low probability AOI. This lack of activity is not unheard of. 2024 had no storms at all until late June. Yet, that year brought record-breaking storm Beryl, which ended up becoming the earliest Category 5 on record, also forming in late June. That year was also the 3rd costliest on record. Point being, it does not matter when hurricanes form, all it takes is one.
Let's take a look at our forecast from today to June 18th...
Here are our 2 birthplaces of Tropical Cyclones, alongside the arrows corresponding to their potential tracks.
Red: This is the MDR (Main Development Region). This area is known for producing long-lived, strong storms. These tropical cyclones, since they are so far away, can be forecasted better. As you can see, no development is expected for the next 10 days. Why? A blanket of Saharan Dust is covering this area, keeping the storms away and the MDR in a slumber. Another factor to consider is the water temperatures in this area...
This map shows the heat potential for the Northern Atlantic. This is basically the capability of the ocean to absorb heat. You can see, these values are low to medium throughout the entire MDR area. These numbers are also shunted south slightly, leading me to believe in the short term, tropical activity in this area shouldn't be expected. What about that blue area in the Caribbean (refer to image 1)?
Blue: This area in the Caribbean has some problems. Saharan Dust and dry air are present in this area. However, it is to a much lesser extent here. Furthermore, heat potential here is much higher. Storms in this area are formed off of the Central American Gyre. Basically, this is an area that spins and spawns low pressures frequently. This area is prone to producing storms at any time during hurricane season. There is a caveat to this though.
This CAG (Central American Gyre) is held south of the best heat potential. This places it in an area with mediocre heat potential but less Saharan dust. That orange you see on the first map is from this area, with it showing a 50% - 70% risk for a Tropical Depression to form in this area within the next 10 days. This bears watching but there are 2 reasons why this should not concern us significantly.
This system will likely be shunted and guided into Central America, keeping impacts away.
Very limited growth would be expected with that storm, and we most likely would not even get a name for it due to having very limited strength.
Overall, the short term (next 10 days) looks quiet, and I would not expect a named storm. Let's look further into June...
Here is our MSLP for the month of June. In simpler terms, this is our average pressure for the month of June. Our Bermuda High (the high pressure that guides the storms) is situated pretty far east, which is normal for this time of year. Generally, there are no big signals that favor significant development in the MDR, but the Caribbean catches my eye.
The Caribbean has a much stronger signal for low pressure. This, combined with warm waters, could create our first opportunities for tropical systems. These storms may get guided south into Central America, limiting organization and risk to us. It's never impossible for a rogue storm to spin up in the CAG region and have the right conditions to impact the Gulf; in fact, it is very common for these storms to enter the Gulf. Let's talk about the Gulf for just a moment...
The Gulf...
I think this picture speaks for itself. This is our temperatures, in Celsius, in the ocean. This isn't bathwater, but for June, it's quite concerning. This is up to 2 degrees Celsius above normal. This is warmer than 2022 but cooler than 2023. Albeit, 2023 had historically high Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Still, this is quite favorable for any storm that decides to venture into the Gulf. The max strength of the storm can depend on the winds in the upper atmosphere and Saharan dust among other things. If a storm could manage to find the right conditions, it would have the SSTs. With that being said, let's jump into our July forecast.
July...
Ah yes, a month full of sun, swimming, and cooking. Of course, you aren't going to want to miss out on some summer cookouts without a jar of fresh jam from Becca's Jams and Jellies. You would never expect a hurricane to sneak up on you in the month of July, until it happens. Will that happen? Let's take a look.
Here is our forecasted SST anomaly for the month of July. Here are some key points to take away:
The Gulf will remain above average in temperatures, with areas up to 2 degrees Celsius above average.
The MDR region remains around average, with varying consistency in above or below average temperatures. Both are possible.
The Caribbean is widely below average temperature-wise, and looks like it turns into a "death trap". Let's talk about why for a moment...
Shear...
This is the biggest thing in my mind that could play as a big limiting factor in the Caribbean. There is a zone of cool water in the Caribbean, but there is also a zone where winds in the atmosphere could be strong and rip the storms apart alongside dry stable air. This cool water and strong shear would effectively disable a hurricane. There are some caveats to this though...
The MDR is modestly favorable in July - November. SSTs are generally average to slightly above average through most of that area. There is also a large plume of moisture expected for much of the open waters of the Atlantic. This generally leads me to believe we will have the potential for some open water strengthening ahead of the Caribbean. Furthermore, if a storm targets the east coast and misses the Caribbean, it would miss the death zone altogether.
The Northern Caribbean is much more favorable. If a storm can stay off the land, it would be able to strengthen at a decent rate. Furthermore, the Gulf looms to be a hotspot through much if not the entire hurricane season. This will apply in our final hurricane season forecast, more on that later.
Overall, despite a less than impressive Southern Caribbean, don't get your hopes up yet. There are many factors that will change and many different possibilities, tracks, and strengths a storm could have. My thinking is we will likely have a somewhat slow July here, but parts of the Atlantic/East Coast could see some activity, especially as waters continue to warm late in the month. Remember, all it takes is one storm, and the Gulf remains very favorable.
August...
Back to School! I know I won't be excited about that, but this is also the month when hurricane season really ramps up.
Based on that chart, you can see tropical activity really starts to ramp up in August historically, and there is no way around that fact, but are we going to get stuck in a 'Jam' this August? Let's talk about it...
Here is the SST anomaly forecast for August. Definitely some bad trends, but I have a mixed bag of emotions based on this. Here are some key thoughts to consider...
The Caribbean trade winds have calmed down, which is normal as we progress in the season. However, cooler water still exists and I'm still not sold on much of the Southern Caribbean, which may affect our CAG development.
The Gulf has shown no signs of slowing down, and it remains very warm. However, increasing dry air moving in from the West could be our lid on things, more on that in just a moment.
Are the open waters of the Atlantic cooling? If you go back to the previous picture for July, widely above average temperatures exist, but you can see the amount of areas with above average waters fades a bit in August. While this is good, the Atlantic definitely is not cooling off. Despite a decrease in SST anomalies, that water is still heating up as we approach peak season in September. That sure keeps me unsettled, but what about that lid on things I just mentioned?
Dry Air...
For context, this is our moisture anomaly for August. Much of the areas that are still above average temperature-wise in the open Atlantic are also rather moist. However, for a landfalling storm in the Gulf that would affect us, I see a lot of dry air. Dry air is stable air, stable air prevents storms, and storms are what make up hurricanes. If there are no storms, there are not going to be any hurricanes. Parts of the MDR are rather moist, but that Caribbean death trap awaits storms that form and is seeping into the Gulf. A guiding high pressure is situated over the Southeast, and that reflects less precipitation. If that dry air from the Caribbean seeps into the Gulf, it may ruin our "perfect" environment.
Remember, it is always possible for Saharan Dust to come off the coast of Africa, limiting MDR activity. It is also possible, however, for the Caribbean trade winds to not be as strong, mitigating weakening. There are still many uncertainties, so take everything you see with a grain of salt.
September...
The changing colors, it's always been my and many others' favorite thing about September. I can tell you a nice cool down is welcome as well. Is this time not the best time to make some toast with your favorite jellies? Becca has got you covered! Before I run too far off course, let's talk hurricanes. It's September, y'all, and if you have lived in the South for longer than a year, you know how it goes. "Have you heard about Hurricane Becca about to hit New Orleans? They say we are going to get some rain, wind, and tornadoes. Be safe out there!" Let me keep you up to date on what to expect this September.
That's our SST anomaly using the ECMWF (European) Seasonal Model for the month of September. It generally pictures what we have been talking about this entire blog.
Favorable Gulf
Modest MDR, potentially growing activity here
Poor development in the Caribbean
The MDR looks a bit more profound, which is normal at peak season. Remember, just a little above average in September can be bathtub water depending on where you're at, especially in that steaming Gulf. The Gulf concerns me all season for the potential of rapid development of storms, and the look in September checks my boxes for some quick developing, intense storms.
Here is our Moisture Anomaly for September. You can see that the Gulf is Average if not Above Average. Check that box off. We also know that the Gulf is going to be running 1 - 2 degrees Celsius above normal. Check that box as well. Looking at a few other factors, the Gulf in September really puts off that "look" for the potential of giving us one of our big storms of the year. There is a big if, not only could Saharan Dust ruin it among other factors, but the Caribbean looks like that one friend's house hurricanes would never visit.
The Caribbean is almost the opposite of the Gulf. Dry Air abroad, slightly above average SSTs in spots at best, and a not so favorable look in other categories. The CAG also should be slowing down as we continue through the season (although, it is known for a secondary peak at times later in the year, but with conditions given, it would not be likely this year).
The MDR looks like a toss-up. You have many regions with warmer than average SSTs, above average moisture, and a favorable upper pattern for development. As you get further west, however, you encounter more dry air and cooler waters. All this to say, we could get some open Atlantic storms this year, but will they make it through the Caribbean death zone? We will have to wait and see.
October...
Finally, we are out of the woods; this season is in the books. Wrong! Many infamous hurricanes have hit in October that significantly affected us, such as Opal and Zeta, along with several infamous storms in the early days of hurricane research. Historically, October is very comparable to August in activity. Let's see if some late-season trouble may be brewing...
Here is our SST anomaly for October. Widely above average at this point. Could this fuel late-season activity? Absolutely. However, there are more factors than this to consider.
Dry Air Anomaly
Upper Air Pattern
Direction of Storms
Let's look at our Dry Air Anomaly to see what we really are working with...
Huh, that is interesting. The MDR continues to grow more moist, likely promoting increased late-season activity, and the Gulf is still hot and generally moist. The Caribbean, on the other hand, is not. Some of the driest air of the year is forecasted in October for the Caribbean. I continue to dislike the favorability in the Caribbean through this point.
Other factors, such as upper air patterns and storm direction, generally support development in the Gulf and MDR. The Caribbean does not hit those boxes. October could be a busy month, with open Atlantic hurricanes and the potential for Gulf activity. Any storms that make it to the Gulf are very prone to strengthening and potentially impacting us. However, don't worry, we only have one month left!
November...
Finally, waters are cooling, temperatures are cooling, and we have seen another season of changing colors. Now, it's time to strap in for a cold winter. Hurricanes aren't asleep yet, however, and we still have one more month of Hurricane Season. Hurricane Season runs through November 30th, and November historically is more active than June. Let's get through this month together and find out what to expect...
This is our SST map for the month of November. You can see almost the same stuff to talk about. The MDR could still be producing tropical chances, and the Gulf is still ripe. However, things are starting to cool down. Ocean temperatures, while above average, are cooling day by day, supporting less growth for hurricanes. November could still crank out some storms, and other conditions support this idea.
There is our Moisture Anomaly for November. The Gulf looks good, and the MDR even looks like it could have some late-season spice. There is a very big key feature I notice, though, the Caribbean finally looks at least somewhat more favorable. This may be all too late, as it is only modestly above average SST-wise, and still a bit dry. We have to also take into account that the ocean is cooling at this point. This is to say, we may get some craziness in the late season, but it does not look like it lines up in time for multiple hurricanes crossing the Atlantic then into the Gulf. There is one feature that may support more late-season activity, however...
Enso...
Have you heard the weatherman talking about La Niña or El Niño? Well, that is a pattern every year, but there is also the 'Neutral' state. A 'neutral' state occurs when the ENSO region in the Pacific is right around average. This influences weather patterns to be near average as well in several places on earth. Still, it can be a warm neutral or cool neutral. We would likely be in a cool neutral by November, potentially a very weak La Niña. This could bring increased tropical activity to the Atlantic basin; however, it may be too little, too late as we approach the end of Hurricane Season. There is always a chance of out-of-season activity, but this is a little too far out to confidently predict at this time. Check out the ENSO forecast in the image below. Stay tuned to forecasts issued this Hurricane Season by TempleWXBlog!
The Forecast...
Well, we made it here. After all that forecasting, you're sitting here wondering, "Well, what are we going to see this season?" It's always smart to go over a few forecasts before I jump into mine, so let's do that.
NOAA Forecast (National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration)
CSU Forecast (Colorado State University)
The Weather Channel Forecast...
After looking at all those forecasts, all of which predict above-average activity, my forecast may be a little surprising. Overall, I would predict an average (13-15 named storms) to slightly below average (10-13 named storms). Average numbers of hurricanes (6-8) and a few major hurricanes (CAT. 3+) (2-4 major hurricanes).
I hope you enjoyed this blog! If you did enjoy it and want to know when the newest weather information is released, subscribe to the newsletter today! It is free, and you just need to put in your email, and we will send you info when blogs are released! Thank you for viewing this blog. Don't forget to check out Becca's Jams and Jellies at her next market! Check out the Sponsor Calendar to find out when her next market will be.
Author: Remington Diedrich
Sponsor: Becca's Jams and Jellies
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