The Next Big Storm is Coming: What to Expect

Greetings weather family! I hope you had an amazing weekend and are ready for the new year.

This new year is forecasted to come in with quite the "bang" meteorologically speaking with a big storm. A large and potent series of storm systems is now progged to affect the area with multiple significant hazards. These systems are forecasted to bring a "yin and yang" setup with severe weather, extreme cold, and winter weather all on the table. Find out in today's forecast what we expect!

Severe Weather...

This is a part that I'm certain many of you are not wanting to hear about. I do have good news: severe weather is a potential, but most likely will not be very major. As of now, any chance would still be a week away, far too in the future to make a well-written forecast.

(Weatherbell)

This is a forecast rain map using the American model about a week from now. Do not use this as an exact radar image, it will change between now and then. What this does tell us, however, is that likely we would be dealing with a line of storms again, similar to what we experienced just a few days ago. This setup would also likely be similar to the one we had just a few days ago.

CAPE, or energy in the air, will likely be very low. Winds in the upper air, however, will be considerable or even high. This remarks the setup we had a few nights ago, with low energy and high winds in the upper atmosphere. This could fuel storms, but I do not think we will have enough energy to quite support major updrafts and storms. Current forecasts show no greater than 500 J/KG of CAPE in our atmosphere at this time. This is not very conducive for storms to form and "explode" like they can with more energy. Needless to say, we need to continue to monitor the threat of severe weather over the coming days.

*Extreme Cold...

You might notice that there is a star next to this section. I put that there to emphasize how major or even catastrophic this incoming cold event could be. As we continue to move closer to this event (most likely sometime next week), I continue to get more and more worried about a very rare cold snap that could do major damage to our area.

First up, let's take a look at our Euro model forecast for temperature departures compared to our average.

(Weatherbell)

This map is valid for Thursday next week. As I said yesterday, don't focus on the numbers too much. The forecast based on this would be ~15 - 25 degrees below average. Compared to the map from yesterday that is a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday. Not a great trend for sure.

I think this forecast is reasonable considering the pattern we are entering. Many years that have had similar patterns to this brought temperatures around this range. We can take a look at a couple of other forecasts though.

Next, I want to take a look at the GFS, but remember not to focus on the exact numbers, as the GFS scenario is more like an "absolute worst case"

(Weatherbell)

As you can see here, temperatures would likely be ~25 - 35 degrees below average. This amount of cold would be life-threatening for older and younger ones, and ones without heat. I consider the GFS a worst-case scenario forecast, but I think it's still reasonable to show it given how far out we are to this event. In addition to this, a few other models are coming up with similar scenarios in a similar timeframe, thus, this should not be counted out quite yet.

I also think this map is reasonable to consider based on some of the analogs we have for this event. Analogs are years that carried a similar pattern to what we are experiencing here.

Analogs + Quotes from NWS/Meteorologists...

In this subsection, I want to pull a couple of quotes from the NWS (National Weather Service) and other Meteorologists.

First up, this is a snippet of a discussion from NWS Birmingham over this incoming cold snap (James Spann's Facebook Page)

"January 1977, and January 1985, will long be remembered in Birmingham, and across all of Central Alabama for that matter, for the extreme cold that occurred. January 1977 was so cold across the Southeastern U.S. that snow fell all the way to South Florida, as far south as Homestead, and snow flurries were even observed in the Bahamas, as the cold weather reached its peak from the 19th to the 21st. January 1985 will be remembered for the subzero temperatures in Birmingham."

These 2 years have become sharp analogs for our incoming cold snap. They describe later on in their discussion how significant these cold snaps were, and how much chaos they produced in Alabama.

Now, here is another snippet of a brief Facebook post by Brian Monahan from WSB (Brian Monahan's Facebook Page)

"The bottom line is this: there is strong support for a very cold start to January -- especially as we head into next week."

Based on these 2 quotes, we can safely say that very cold weather is a possibility in early January yet we need to keep watching to figure out how significant this cold will be.

Snow/Ice...

Many have been dreaming of the forecast just including this segment in it for months now. At this time, there is no confidence on a specific date or amount of snow we could see, but there is some confidence that this pattern will bring conditions conducive to snow. Let's take a look at a few different ensembles...

(Weatherbell)

Here is the latest Euro ensemble. As seen, this is quite a decrease compared to yesterday's ensemble. Still, though, a decent amount of snow falls over our area. As we continue to move closer to this event, expect ups and downs, snowfall is especially hard to predict here in the south.

(Weatherbell)

Here is the American Ensemble. As seen, it shows a very similar pattern for snow as the Euro. Some slight decrease has also been noted on this model but not as much. Bottom line: be ready for the potential for snow/ice next week, no need to take precautions at this point.

Overall...

To recap, severe weather will be a possibility ahead of the extreme cold, but may not be very significant. Extreme cold will be the main storyline over the coming week as a potentially catastrophic cold blast is expected to move into the area. And finally, Snow and ice are on the table, but not guaranteed by any means.

To stay up to date on future weather forecasts, make sure to subscribe! It is free and you receive updates every time a blog post is released. You can subscribe below this blog post. Have a safe week, and stay warm!

Author: Remington Diedrich