You most likely have heard via social media about an incoming tropical system in the Gulf. While some parts of these posts may be accurate, most of them are overly hyped nonsense that makes you think we will have a significant storm within the week. This is not true, and Ace and I would like to go over our knowns and unknowns with this storm.
Knowns...
(NHC)
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasted a 20% risk for tropical development within the week. The yellow area is the main area of concern for our area. This low pressure will come from an area known as the Central American Gyre (CAG) which is a particularly active region during the late parts of the hurricane season. This area currently includes extremely warm water and very low wind shear, perfect for tropical development. This is where our low pressure of interest is located.
This is our latest American model run. This image is valid around 1 week from now. This is a very long range to be accurately forecasting based on 1 model run. The general idea is this: A strong low pressure will be present in the eastern Gulf of Mexico within around 1 week. A low pressure within that area is highly threatening to our area.
This is the European ensemble out through the next 10 days. It is showing the possibility of tropical depression wind through the next 10 days. The chances for us aren't directly high, but there is a clear risk for a tropical system to move through the Eastern Caribbean and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. These high probabilities are based on multiple smaller models which indicate this system forming and moving north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. These high probabilities give us decent confidence that this system will hit these regions. After that, however, confidence drops considerably and the track of the system is very uncertain. This is shown by moderate to low probabilities in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Unknowns...
The real unknown is the impacts it's expected to bring. This system will be placed in a favorable environment for impacts in our area potentially, but it's extremely far out to know what we will exactly see. The main potential threat would most likely be heavy rainfall depending on where the system hits. Albeit, the track is also very unknown at the point of landfall. The point of landfall quite frankly lies across the entire eastern and central Gulf coast. Depending on where it makes landfall, a cold front could interact with the system bringing widespread extreme rainfall.
This scenario is depicted in the latest Canadian model run. This very heavy area of rain is draped across all of north Georgia. This scenario is possible but is only one out of many scenarios possible.
The top few possible scenarios at the moment seem to be:
The system hits central Florida around Tampa, bringing no impacts.
The system impacts the panhandle of Florida, clashes with the cold front brings heavy rain, and moves northeast.
The system impacts further west and misses the cold front, bringing limited impacts.
Of course, anywhere in between is very possible, and these scenarios should not be considered the expected events of this storm. Also, do not forget that a scenario outside of these 3 is very possible at this time as well, but in my eyes appears less likely.
Summary...
Overall, this system has some potential to affect our area. However, we need to keep in mind that all of the hyperbole that we hear about this system is not necessarily true. The system is still very unknown and a lot needs to be worked out with this system before an official forecast is released. The only course of action at the moment is to keep eyeing forecasts from trusted sources.
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Author: Remington Diedrich
Coauthor: Ace Huff
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