Storm Alert: How Three Major Systems Will Impact Temple.

Many of us enjoyed New Year's celebrations just a few days ago. Time with family, Fireworks, and fun were all on the agenda for many. Now, though, it's time to take our eyes off the New Year and towards the Weather.

Temple is now on a "Storm Alert," meaning we are in the crosshairs of an impactful storm(s) that could bring severe weather or Winter Weather. Right now, we have three storm systems in line to affect us through early and mid-January. We all know the saying "Bad things come in threes" and that is what looks to occur this month. A round of Severe Weather followed by risks of heavy snowfall are all on the calendar this month.

1st Storm...

Our first big storm system on interest will affect the area starting Sunday and bleeding into Monday. I am not expecting a high-impact storm out of this system. My main concern is Severe Weather.

(SPC)

Here is the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) outlook for Sunday. As shown, a 15% risk for Severe Weather is outlined for areas to our west. The key problem for us will be this, will our temperatures be too cool? I think they will be.

This question will be the focus point of this 1st system until the day of. If our temperatures are able to warm up, severe weather is very possible. If not, then thunderstorms are possible, but severe weather shouldn't be expected.

(WeatherBell)

These are our forecast Temperatures as the line of storms moves through. For severe weather, you want Temperatures to be at least 60 degrees, and we don't hit that mark. While it will still be possible, I do not think it will be a major concern.

NOTE: Wraparound light snow showers could be possible with this system.

*2nd Storm...

This will likely be our most impactful storm system.

(WeatherBell)

This is our latest American Ensemble, a major uptrend in snowfall totals is currently being noted on a run-by-run basis. This means that snowfall totals have been increasing as more and more models come in. Confidence continues to increase as well, aiding in the increase of totals. Regardless, a historic winter weather event that was showcased by many "mediaologists" is not expected by any means. Rather, a storm system capable of dropping snowfall, potentially heavy at times, is possible but not guaranteed.

Let me show you a graphic I created:

I also used this graphic last blog, but it applies now more than ever. With an increase in snowfall totals, that means an increased amount of models are forecasting the northern track. One thing that no longer applies is the fact that the Euro model (in my opinion the most reliable) is shifting more north towards the GFS/American model.

This also coincides with analogs of similar events generating snow storms across the entire Southeast. We still have a long way to go before we know the exacts of this storm system, though, and it should be treated as such.

Storm Chaser Josh Griffith had this to say about the current look of this system:

"We have a very high ceiling and a very low floor with this setup, but it's exactly where you'd want it to be this far out."

Needless to say, a winter weather event could be on the table late next week, stay tuned for further updates on TempleWXBlog!

Quick Note on Temperatures...

(CPC)

This is our risk for much below-average temperatures produced by meteorologists at the CPC. We are at a High Risk for below-average temperatures, meaning it is now EXPECTED. These temperatures have increased as days have gone on, but it is still possible to see temperatures in the 20s and Teens across the area. Stay aware of the hazardous temperatures, and I will inform you soon.

3rd Storm...

I could say a lot about this signal, but it just remains too far out to make an accurate judgment on. After late next week and into the following week, there are some signs that another storm, potentially carrying winter precipitation, could affect the area.

Most ensembles do increase snowfall totals around that time, as well as global models have hinted at a potent low-pressure system entering the area. As I said, it remains too far out to make an accurate judgment on this storm, just keep your guard up even after next week into the middle of the year!

My forecast...

My forecast remains mostly unchanged from yesterday.

Our first system brings multiple rounds of rain and maybe a few thunderstorms but nothing too severe should be expected, warmer. Big cooldown following the system's passing along with a slight risk for wraparound snow showers, setting us up for the 2nd system.

Potential big-time snow risk or nothing at all and cold. All or nothing type system with, my forecast at this time, calling for an inch or less of snow. Decent signals continue to try to push that number up but will leave it as is at this time.

Another high-risk high-reward setup for the 3rd storm. Could bring winter precip to the area but too far out to have any exact details on. Will remain cold, if not very cold through this timeframe.

I hope you enjoyed this blog! To stay updated, you can subscribe! Subscribing is free and keeps you updated on future events, alerts, and blog posts! All you have to do is put your email in and boom, it's done! Subscribe today!

Do you like the snow?

• Yes!
• No...

Author: Remington Diedrich