Tropical Storm Francine (soon to be Hurricane Francine) is expected to grow to a strong category 2 or 3 storm. Our area, while not in its direct path, will experience significant impacts from Francine. Topics of discussion include Rainfall, Tornadoes, and Wind Impacts. We will also discuss the timing of the system in our area.
Rainfall...
Despite this distance between us and the center of the storm, residents are being advised for 1- 3" of rain across most of north Georgia. Locally, rain totals will likely hover around 1.5" - 2" of rainfall.
(NHC)
With the large size of the storm, impacts from rain will be far-reaching, with much of the southeast receiving a healthy dosage. Expect times of heavy rain, as outer bands move through the area. Embedded thunderstorms are also expected.
Due to times of swift, heavy rainfall, flash flooding is a key concern for most forecasters in the area.
(NHC)
As shown by the graphic above, we are placed at a level 1/4 (Marginal) risk for flash flooding. I expect much of North Georgia will see problems with flash flooding due to the quick nature of the heavy rainfall. Do note that we are within proximity to a level 2/4 (Slight) risk for flash flooding.
Another factor that is a bit more uncertain is the potency of the storm system. The low pressure causing Francine may drift back south into our area, leading to a heightened risk for flooding in the long term. The good news would be decreased temperatures throughout the week.
Tornadoes...
Tornadoes are expected to be another key factor within this storm. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has not outlined our area under a threat due to low confidence in the storm. However, the setup for multiple Tornadoes across Alabama and Georgia appears very possible.
This is the GFS prediction of lower-level winds in the atmosphere. We, in the meteorology community, like to call this Tornado Juice. The best values are found a bit north and west of here, but oranges and reds still are conducive.
What we have that they don't is Energy. We have high levels of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy). This means storms have energy to feed off of and grow. This type of tornado juice and CAPE is favorable for tornadoes. My forecast is we see a few tornadoes touch down across north GA.
Winds...
To keep this section brief, here is my forecast now: Winds are generally not going to be a major threat. Sure, it could get gusty out there at times, but winds are not expected to be damaging.
This is our wind gust swath running through Saturday on the European model. As seen here, gusts of up to 40 mph are possible throughout the evening and nighttime of Thursday. While gusts are somewhat high, windspeeds will likely cap around 20 MPH, which is not major. This overall should not pose much of a threat to daily life.
Timing...
(NHC)
As shown here, we have the new NHC cone graphic with timing. Expect the following at each time:
Thursday early morning: Conditions begin to deteriorate across the area
Thursday Morning: Travel time will likely bring some of the worst conditions of the day, with medium winds, heavy rain, and a localized tornado threat.
Thursday Afternoon: Worst of the day. Rain, at times heavy, with max winds and tornado potential.
Thursday Evening and night: Calming, winds decreasing along with rain and tornadoes.
As the storm system weakens and moves away, expect hazards to correlate with that.
Rundown...
Overall, expect moderate winds, heavy rainfall, and localized tornadoes with this system. Do not expect any tropical storm warnings to be issued for the area, as we will likely be too far away from the storm to receive those impacts. However, do expect the forecast to change, and the threats to change with it.
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Author: Remington Diedrich
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