"2024 Could Be Among Most Active Hurricane Seasons Ever" is among the headlines everyone along the Atlantic has seen this Hurricane Season. While Hurricane Beryl ravaged parts of the Caribbean and became the earliest Category 5 on record, Hurricane Season has been historically inactive.
At the time of writing, only 5 storms have formed in the Atlantic, three of which became hurricanes. Many have thought "Why has this season been so underwhelming?" and "Will Hurricane season pick up?" which are valid questions. The key to the underwhelming performance is due to very dry stable air that has engulfed the Atlantic almost the entire season. The same dry air is leaving right now, promoting what Meteorologists think will be an active stretch of Tropical Systems.
Let's start with the "Why has this season been so underwhelming?" question. Tropical Waves emerge from the area between the Saharan Desert and the African Rainforest. That area promotes the best conditions for moist unstable air, and large storm systems to form. This year we have had 2 key problems:
Tropical Waves have formed further north in the dry Saharan Desert. The Saharan Desert takes all the moisture and instability from the low pressures, in a sense killing them.
The biggest reason(s) for the major inactivity this year are dry Saharan Dust pouring into the Atlantic and cool waters along the African coast.
This is the latest forecast from GEOS (a computer model found on WeatherBell) As clearly seen, Dusta around Africa and across the Atlantic is at very high values. This dry, hot air, has promoted limited tropical activity.
This is the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly map. Much of the Atlantic is above average as expected, but right off the coast of africa is below average. This, in combination with high amounts of dust, promote an inactive hurricane season. Things do appear to change within the coming weeks.
This is our latest 7 day forecast by the NHC (National Hurricane Center). As you can see, multiple areas of interest are highlighted. One of which quickly traversing the Carribean, the other in the eastern Atlantic. The dry dusty air, as we talked about earlier, is expected to dissapate a bit over the next few days. This dissapation, along with a better alignment of tropical waves an instability, will allow for an increased period of activity. This period could bring more than one storm to the Atlantic.
Something to remember is that September is the most active time in the Atlantic for tropical systems (Image found at The Weather Channel). Much of said activity occurs along the east coast and in the gulf. Despite this, specifics on any storm are to unkown to narrow down a pinpoint forecast. But do expect a better timeframe of tropical activity in the Atlantic.
Author: Remington Diedrich
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