Author: ShearConvection
I am sure we all know that #severewx season is upcoming and fast. We already have risks being acknowledged by many online. Infact, the risk(s) for severe weather could run throughout all of Feburary. The risk in my eyes at this time would likely setup somewhere in the Plains and/or Mid-South.
Taking a look at the dewpoints here, and I quickly notice the sharp gradient in the Plains, leading me to believe a dryline setup could be possible. This gradient also exists into that Mid-South reigon as well. CAPE at this range is typically underdone so I wont show that but I would by no means be surprised if we get values over 1,000.
This conincides with our lightning flash density reigon. You can see where we think storms will be most likely. I would expect this warm sector to be quite broad stretching from the southern Plains to potentially around the Great Lakes area.
I would also like to point out that there will be no lack of wind shear. The values here are quite high and would easily be conducive of volatile hodographs along with high vorticity. Too far out to know any dates or specifics so this is just more of a "range" of possibilities.
Would like to close out with a few statements on Twitter(X) and see what people think. Ben Williams caught onto the idea of multiple episodes being possible as well, stating:
"Too early for any specifics but a couple severe weather episodes look likely next week (26th-28th)"
Dr. Reed Timmer also mentioned how the evolution of the trough on latest runs have looked better, he said
"The Euro rendition of the mega trough next week seems more realistic of an evolution to me, especially given the background climate condition next Wednesday with a massive warm sector across the southern/central US"
Finally, Meteoroloquads found the volatile hodographs and how CAPE is typically underperformed this far out, mentioning
"Sounding in west AR depicts very high levels of shear that induce a pretty volatile hodograph. CAPE values will be a little lower than actuality since we are so far out, but note the abundance of 3cape. Wind barbs also support a more discrete storm mode."
All of this in consideration, we need to keep watching the next few days to see what may pan out late this Feburary.
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