As we continue to watch the trends for the upcoming severe weather episode, we have noticed something important. The storm system expected to cause this is projected to move faster, which in turn would mean the severe weather risk is further east than anticipated.
If you compare this map from the SPC to yesterday, it has been clearly shifted east. This would now no longer affect people east of the Mississippi for the most part. The risk has remained at 15% from yesterday mostly due to the uncertainties in the forecast. I would also like to point out the system has trended back towards that messier look that fixed yesterday, further limiting predictability.
We continue to see similar CAPE values that we saw yesterday, up to 1000. This is becoming more of a problem because now we are having issues with the level of shear we have.
This is our current forecasted map. As you can clearly see, the highest shear (in brown and white) is further north than the main severe weather risk. This displacement of high shear and energy could hurt the severe weather risks heavily. These types of setups are generally prone to a High Wind risk rather than Hail and a lowered Tornado risk. This forecast is uncertain as it has been changing constantly over the past couple of days so I advise you remain weather aware.
The SPC even noted this trend, stating:
"The last couple of cycles from the ECMWF have the surface cold front surging east much faster than the GFS. While the operational GFS remains much slower, the GEFS ensemble guidance overall has trended faster. Given the combination of uncertainty and overall trends, severe probabilities will be maintained for Day 6/Wed, but trimmed."
This clearly could lead to a lower severe weather risk for Wednesday, however Tuesday could be a different story. Read more about it in yesterdays blog post.
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