I am now becoming increasingly concerned by the looks of late Feburarys severe weather risk. It is currently appearing that significant severe weather, capable of hail, winds, and tornadoes, will be possible going into this. The look by this is certaintly startling but there is a potential limiting factor to this event.
This is a look at the GFS dewpoints. We typically look for 60s for major severe weather, but 50s can still be conducive. You can clearly see a very broad area of high dewpoints that would easily be enough to promote severe weather. The main area of concern would most likely fall across East TX/OK into the MO Valley and Ohio Valley. As the storm system continues east the risk will shift east with it.
This is our upper air wind which is called wind shear. We typically look for values heading into the 50+ which is designated in purple/pink. The highest wind shear is across the same areas facing high dewpoints favorable for severe weather. Wind shear this high is conducive for tornadoes, and combined with the high dewpoints, is favorable for destructive storms. All of this in mind, there is something that could hold this back.
There is expected to be 2 main areas of high wind shear, one coming from the north and the other south. These 2 areas would need to phase to create the best enviorment for volatile storms. The 2 areas, however, do not phase well. This would cause problems in the upper air and could limit the risk for severe weather. People on X are noticing this caveat. Starinbox, owner of the youtube channel WTUS, stated this:
"Trough(s) continue to look bad, but the setup keeps getting better. Don't know if I've seen such a weird trend like this. Eh, still very skeptical."
Needless to say, the risk for severe weather looks to be on the rise in the coming days, and folks across the Eastern US should continue to monitor for latest updates.
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