Man, this relief from the heat has just been a blessing! A "cold" front passed over our area a few days ago, while not heavily decreasing the temperatures, the moisture in the air (Dew Point) was heavily decreased. This dryness in the air has brought about lower "feel-like" temperatures. So while the actual temp hasn't changed much, it still feels infinitely better outside!
Summary...
Overall, we have had near-average temperatures since our "cold" front (more like a cool front) passed over our region. While it has been refreshing, it appears as though we won't have this same airmass for much longer. With a change in airmass also comes a shift in precipitation chances. This change, however, could be altered as Tropical Storm Ernesto races north in the Atlantic. With that uncertainty, there is some level of unknown when it comes to our forecast. This unknown could be the difference between (quite literally) hot and dry or cool and stormy. This along with our topic of the remaining drought in parts of north Georgia. In short, we have a complex forecast with multiple factors in play, that could completely change our local weather.
Drought...
If you love farming or gardening, this pertains to you the most. For a good chunk of summer, we were HOT, like REALLY HOT. That isn't fun, but what made it worse was how dry it was. From June through July (excluding inflation from storms in late July), we received a total of 5.21" of rain. (This number is based on rainfall measurements from HARTSFIELD-JACKSON International Airport which can be found on Weather Underground) That amount of rainfall (or lack thereof) brought along severe drought (D2) to the area. The drought came along very quickly and was so quick it earned an infamous name; "Flash Drought". Flash droughts are disastrous to the farming and gardening industry. They leave little time to prepare and react, and can kill crops "in a flash". This drought persisted through most of the summer, but finally, I can say it has stopped... for now...
As you can see on this map (provided by the US Drought Monitor), most of Georgia (including us) is white, meaning no drought is evident (see image above). However, areas nearby (Paulding, Harolson, Fulton, etc.) are in a Yellow or Orange shade. This is indicative of Dry conditions or slight drought (D0/D1). While are area is not under any shade, we are still very nearby to it. The reason I say we are only okay just for the time being is due to the instability in the forecast. We are expected to land somewhere in between a ridge (hot and dry) and a trough (cool and wet). The uncertainty comes into play as a Tropical Cyclone moves north through the Atlantic. The track of this storm is key to whether we end up more hot and dry or cool and wet. If we were to end up more dry, drought could very well creep back into our area, and we could be right back to mud cracks and brown plants.
Tropical Storm Ernesto...
On to the meat and beans of this discussion: Tropical Storm Ernesto. Its name is bolded and italicized to emphasize the implication his track has on our forecast. Most of the time, the implication would be the storm affecting our area, however, it is not going to directly hit us (or even come close for that matter).
Here is the expected track of Ernesto at this time (Map provided by the National Hurricane Center)(NOTE: This track will change!). It's projected to curve north within the next ~48 hours or so and move out to sea. What is the problem, you may be wondering. How it influences the pattern on the east coast is what will make or break our forecast for the next week or so.
Here is a comparison between the American Model and the European Model (Map of the 2 models presented by WeatherBell paid service). The game changer here is was is behind the blue area along the East Coast. Notice on the European Model, that we have a warm ridge develop behind the east coast low pressure. On the American Model (this is when Ernesto comes into play), the low pressure basically blocks a warm weather-producing ridge from developing. With that, the American Model brings multiple storm systems through the area, which in turn, brings much more rainfall to the area. On the other hand, the European Model has a strong ridge form which halts any storm systems from entering the area, this creates for much less rainfall in the area. Ironically, this all comes down to Ernesto phasing with the parent low pressure in Canada and either:
1. Blocks a ridge from forming in the area and lets storm systems move through.
or
2. The low pressure moves out of the way and alows a ridge to form in the area.
This forecast uncertainty is just like Yin and Yang, complete opposites. The unfortunate news is it at this point it could go either way, although it does appear the forecast is leaning toward a ridge/dry solution. If that's so, expect a dry week ahead with warm temperatures and sunny skies.
The forecast...
Despite the holes of uncertainty left in the forecast, there is enough knowledge to predict what our weather will look like through this week. Given the amount we do know, expect the rest of the work week to be quiet, with temperatures gradually warming along with increased rain chances. By this weekend, expect rainfall chances to peak, with numbers clocking in <60% (below likely criteria). After that, the forecast is a challenge, and will all depend on Ernesto. My prediction is we are going to see a dryer ridge form and have temperatures continue to rise, along with a dropoff in precipitation chances. Even with that, we could still see a chance of precipitation. Why? Because the side of the ridge we are on is known to produce relatively unpredictable storm systems that can traverse through the area. The chance of that occurring is too unknown and will not be mentioned in my forecast.
Author: Remington Diedrich
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